In today’s blog I want to talk to you about my recent article in RTÉ Brainstorm, where I explored how many of Kerry’s U20 footballers make (or don’t make) the leap to the senior stage. The short version? Talent matters, but it’s not the only thing that decides who breaks through. Timing, squad turnover, and the arrival of a new manager can be just as important as ability.
The Numbers
For the piece, I looked back at 31 seasons of Kerry U20/U21 panels from 1994 to 2024. The goal was to see how many of those players eventually started a senior championship game for Kerry.
Across those three decades, the average yield was just over three players per year. Some years produced none at all – 2014, 2023 and 2024 haven’t delivered a starter yet – while others produced the backbone of teams that went on to win Sam Maguire.
The standout year was 1996, when 10 players eventually made the step up, the highest on record. More recently, 2011 and 2017 both produced nine senior starters each. That 2017 cohort has backboned the All-Ireland wins of 2022 and 2025.
However, the spikes weren’t just about great talent. They were also about timing.
Why Timing Matters So Much
If you look closely, every time there has been a significant intake of young players, it has coincided with a managerial change.
- When Páidí Ó Sé took over in 1996, he brought in the 1995 and 1996 U21 groups, many of whom won senior medals the very next year.
- Éamonn Fitzmaurice in 2012 leaned on the 2011 panel.
- Peter Keane in 2019 tapped into the 2017 cohort, just after a wave of retirements had left gaps to be filled.
In other words, when a new manager arrives and fresh faces are needed, doors open. The same is true when senior players retire en masse. For an U20 footballer, it’s not just about being good enough – it’s about being in the right place at the right time. Or going for a position where there is a shortage of candidates.
The flip side is just as stark. Some years yield almost nothing. The early 2000s were barren, and the 2020 and 2021 panels have only produced a single starter each so far. Why? Because the senior side was already settled, successful, and difficult to break into.
Take Kerry’s All-Ireland winning team of 2025: the average age was 27.33, exactly the “sweet spot” for a mature, dominant panel. In that environment, the funnel narrows dramatically. Younger players are left waiting, often stuck as squad members rather than starters, and some never get a real opportunity before their chance has passed.
What It Means
This stability is good for results in the short term – Kerry look well placed to compete for more silverware in the next few years. But there’s a risk too. A lack of gradual turnover can lead to sudden mass retirements and a scramble to rebuild. We saw something similar after the “Golden Years” team of the 1970s and 1980s retired, which led to a decade-long famine until the 1997 breakthrough.
One possible solution is a structured development squad for players aged 21–25 who are beyond U20 but not yet ready for senior level. Some counties already use this system, keeping fringe players in a high-performance environment with tailored strength and conditioning, tactical work, and challenge matches. Éamonn Fitzmaurice trialled something similar during his tenure, and it could be a way to keep talent engaged during the “waiting years.”
Ultimately, breaking into the Kerry senior team is about much more than individual brilliance. For some, their moment comes at just the right time. For others, it never comes at all.
Unless you’re David Clifford, you can be the best number 13 in your county and still find yourself born into the wrong decade. That’s the harsh reality of elite sport – and the reason timing will always matter just as much as talent.
Karol Dillon is a PhD researcher in the Department of Physical Education & Sport Sciences, UL.
Contact: Email karol.dillon@ul.ie Follow on X @KarolDillon8
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